Weekly Article 12/04/2025 - ADV Negative Or Realistic?

Many people have told me in the past that I am negative because I point out what I am seeing. I write this to add a bit of reality to extremely underreported news by the financial game shows and mainstream media. It is not a big shock that many would think that I am off base since they are swallowing propaganda 24/7 from those same sources. (Tell a lie often enough and it becomes the truth).

How many are aware that if you invested $10,000.00 in the year 2000 into the S&P 500 index you would have seen your $10,000 turn into $77,945.00. Probably many since this is touted as “the place to be.” Now, how many realize that the same $10,000.00 invested in gold during that same time would be $126, 596.00. That is massive outperformance that is RARELY, if ever, mentioned on the financial game shows. Add to that the fact that the “markets” have been artificially propped up with “printing and buying” and gold has been artificially suppressed with spoofing and naked shorting. (source: Investing.com) This suggests that if market forces were allowed to function as planned (true price discovery) the difference would likely be exponentially larger. I believe the day is coming when we will see this.

I have also written many times that I believe we have been in a depression since at least 2008 and that nobody can discern this because the Fed started conjuring up cash when the Dow was 6600, the S&P was 666 and they haven’t stopped since. If they did the entire system could collapse immediately. The “printing” has only masked our lack of productivity and innovation.

This “printing” has allowed us to live FAR above our means as we produce computer blips or pieces of printed paper while the rest of the world produces real stuff. For a while they were content to trade real assets for paper promises. The day of reconning is near as now the rest of the world is tired of being dictated to and bullied. I am also sure that many see the numbers and realize we will never pay back what we have promised to pay with a currency that remains anywhere near its perceived value today. Remember that if the dollar loses purchasing power prices rise.

This is one of the main reasons that holding hard assets is so important. We are at a point where we cannot even pay the interest on the debt we carry without all sorts of games being played up to and including conjuring up cash from nowhere at virtually no cost that produces NOTHING to pay the INTEREST costs.

In addition, the act of “printing” has caused prices to rise far more quickly than wages causing all sorts of problems for most people. It has also hollowed out our economy. I don’t know about anyone else, but I can feel a difference in attitudes. There always seemed to be a let’s get it done mindset where now it seems many people are just existing day to day. I have even seen a survey where Americans are more unhappy right now than they have ever been.

It could be the perceived (probably real) lack of opportunity particularly for those starting out. It could be that since major corporations are buying up everything including hospitals, doctors, dentists, insurance companies, large repair services, etc. that small businesses (the creator of most jobs in the USA) are being destroyed and are being eradicated by those with the cash.

A good example would be the ADP report for November where it was reported that the USA lost 32,000 jobs in November. That is sad but far sadder is that small companies (1-49) lost 120,000 jobs. That is telling!

I don’t believe this is an accident. I believe this is being done on purpose to crush competition and advance the agenda of the 1% to own it all. (You will own nothing and be happy).

All the happy talk masks the underlying reality that our economy is suffering record setting debts at all levels. There are also rising defaults in most debt categories including mortgages, student loans, credit cards, auto loans, buy now, pay later, etc.

With all of the layoffs being announced this suggests that the “printing” will have to go into hyperdrive in the near future because the strain on the system is increasing while the portion of the population contributing is shrinking. More “printing” more loss of purchasing power= HIGHER PRICES.

The impact of higher prices is not just for individuals. Companies have to pay more for input costs, wages, transportation, taxes, etc. Companies with weak balance sheets could cease to exist resulting in a total loss of any investment you may have made. Cities and municipalities also have to pay more for goods, police- particularly if things continue south- wages and pension contributions. I have to wonder what many state budgets will look like in a couple of years as they are struggling now with deficits and we are probably going to see FAR more weakness in tax collections going forward.

While the “markets” rise on expectations of more Fed intervention the economy is collapsing right before our eyes. Don’t be the last to see it!

Be Prepared!

Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not purport to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

Commodities are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Commodities are volatile investments and should only be a small part of a diversified portfolio. There may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices are rising overall.

Precious Metals, including gold, are subject to special risks including but not limited to price may be subject to wide fluctuation, the market is relatively limited, the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability, and the market is unregulated.

Diversification does not ensure gains nor protect against loss. Companies mentioned are being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Investing involves risk regardless of strategy.