Many of us watch the NFL- although probably a lot less than we used to. I remember an old receiver for the Jets- Keyshawn Johnson who played a few years and went into broadcasting. While there, he coined a phrase that caught on pretty big. It was “Cmon man!” It was generally used when somebody made a play so obviously bad it was hard to believe it actually took place.

I found myself using this phrase countless times this week, particularly while watching our President touting “the greatest economy we have ever had”.

There was no mention that we are more indebted than any other country in the history of the world. There was no mention of this latest run-up in the market having to do with central banks conjuring up “money” from nowhere and buying all assets- including stocks. I also have to wonder how much has to do with the Federal government going full nuclear with its deficits- reported to be $134 billion in just the FIRST MONTH of fiscal 2020. This is what they ADMIT- the GAAP numbers are FAR higher!

Zerohedge reported that the Swiss National Bank has over $94 BILLION in US stocks. We all know that the Japanese Central Bank IS the Japanese bond market and has been a major player in the Japanese stock market through their buying of ETFs.

There is also a chart out there that shows the increase in the S&P is almost in lockstep with the increase in central bank’s’ balance sheets.

There was no mention of RECORD stock buybacks both last year AND this year as corporate insiders dump shares at record amounts also. (UBS) Usually just after announcing a share buyback so they can get the best price. This USED to be illegal but – not anymore! CMON MAN!

I kept seeing “expert” after “expert” espousing how “great” the economy is. For Whom?

The farmers who are being wiped out by both weather and the “printing” of faux money which renders much of their labor nil? Wisconsin is losing two farms per day and many are in dire straits.

We are seeing unprecedented crop failures across the globe. Hundreds of counties in the US are official “disaster areas” with regards to their agriculture.

Or could it be our manufacturers who are reporting the weakest numbers in at least a decade. The Chicago PMI fell to a two-decade low and is in severe contraction.

Could it be the shippers who are seeing rates and cargos falling year over year and are contracting by more in each report?

Or could it be the retail workers who are losing jobs at a record pace as store closings set another record for store closings- eclipsing last year’s record by July of 2019?

Of course, many out there will refer to the “best ever” unemployment rate of 3.6%. That would be WONDERFUL if it were real. The 95 million or so discouraged workers that are not counted allow for the statistical distortion to be reported as fact by the shills in the media- leaving most unaware that the REAL unemployment rate is 20% according to John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics. In addition to the geniuses who get the 3.6% from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) if you did ANY research on your own you would find- right at that site- that FEWER people are employed in the USA today than in 2009! Did you ever wonder how we could have more people, fewer working and a lower unemployment rate? CMON MAN!!!

I grew up in Illinois. The backbone of our (all of our) economy is our manufacturing base, our farmers and more recently service sector and sales. With all three contracting as I write this how can I take any of these clowns seriously when they are telling me things are “great” CMON MAN!

I hear the Fed chairman Powell say the “economy is in a good place” while at his press conference he said, “the current system is not sustainable” HUH??? CMON MAN!

What started out as a TOMO (temporary open market operation) to alleviate some funding pressure on banks has now morphed into POMO (Permanent open market operation). This means that as I write this the propping up of the banks is now an ongoing exercise that will likely have no end date even though they announce dates far into the future to give the illusion that they can actually stop. If the economy is “GREAT” why is the Fed buying $60 Billion per month in T-Bills, giving $90 billion per week in longer- term loans, and issuing a $100 billion plus per day so banks can function. (Probably carry out trades to manipulate all prices in my opinion). Remember, prior to the REPO operation metals were seeing large gains that have again been tempered by unusual trades at odd hours in the markets. (Nobody there to buy).

One great example is that on November 6th. a massive sell took place in the silver market. Total mine supply for a year is 885 million ounces. Just on November 6th over 955 MILLION ounces of silver (paper anyway) was SOLD in less than 5 hours. WITH MARKET ORDERS- meant to drive the price down. It worked to the tune of about 60 cents. That is substantial but I believe if this was done just a few years ago with that volume silver would have fallen by dollars- not cents. Of course, gold followed suit and is now recovering as I write this. I don’t know if this is for short-term profits or if it is meant to help large banks and central banks to get these assets on the cheap, but the shenanigans are not even being hidden anymore.

For the first time in a long time it was reported that the Bundesbank- the German Central bank has joined their comrades and is adding to the record purchases of gold by central banks- this has not happened in Germany in a long time. My guess is that they are hip to the $21 trillion in “missing” money from the Department of Defense and HUD from 2000-2015 (my guess is that this may be the tip of an iceberg) and that the Fed and the USA are likely not the only entities acting in this manner. This would mean that there is a LOT more FIAT currency out there than is accounted for and if the average guy finds out it’s game over.

This action in the REPO markets, I believe, is giving us a strong signal that something is drastically wrong but since nobody really understands it- it is not discussed and we move on. Just look at the last few weeks. In the beginning it was a surprise. A week later and the operation had to be expanded in a large way. A couple of weeks later ( and $270 billion in the last 4 weeks added to the Fed’s balance sheet) and now it is almost considered “normal” even though the Fed chair said it “is not sustainable”.

The central banks and their owners- the private banks- are driving up certain assets and are retarding other assets. Currently, they are BUYING those assets being held back (gold, silver, etc) while enticing others to buy equities while insiders are selling record amounts and CEOs are also leaving companies in record numbers- over 1000 in 2019 so far. This to me is highly unusual in a “great” economy.

Always watch what they do- not what they say. Mr. Stock Market Warren Buffett, who is always quick to tell everyone to buy, buy and buy some more is sitting on a cash hoard larger than he ever has. Mr. Buffett IS Mr Insider. What is it he knows that we don’t? What do the banks (who don’t trust each other to pay off overnight) know that we don’t? Obviously something is up!

CMON MAN!

Be Prepared!

Mike Savage

Financial Advisor, Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.

2642 Route 940

Pocono Summit, Pa 18346

Phone 570-730-4880

Fax 570-243-8141

Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not purport to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Commodities are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Commodities are volatile investments and should only be a small part of a diversified portfolio. There may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices are overall rising. Precious metals, including gold are subject to special risks including but not limited to : price may be subject to wide fluctuation, the market is relatively limited, the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability and the market is unregulated. Diversification does not ensure gains nor protect against loss.. Companies mentioned are being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Investing involves risk regardless of strategy.

If you no longer wish to receive this correspondence please reply to this e-mail.