According to our president- and many others to be fair- our economy is “strong as hell”. I guess when you are in a position where rising prices and jobs being destroyed are everyone else’s problem you could actually believe that.
As the dollar continues to crater in real terms (inflation) the illusion is that it is strong. Almost any currency would look “strong” against the Euro, the Pound and the Yen- which are all collapsing faster than the dollar.
Other things that are collapsing faster than the dollar are stocks and many bonds. At the end of 3 quarters in 2022 the S&P 500 is down 24% YTD and the Nasdaq down 33% YTD. Even Bloomberg’s US Aggregat Bond Index is down 15%. Still in that 60/40 portfolio or a target date fund?
The only somewhat bright spot is the Bloomberg Commodity Index which was up 13.5% YTD.
So far, at the end of the 3rd. quarter over $18 TRILLION in (in my opinion mostly illusory) value has been lost YTD in stock and bond “markets”.
While gold is down (mainly because of manipulation by major banks as they and their friends buy record amounts) it was down around 9% and, in my opinion, is near a major bottom where the downside is limited and the upside is exponential. I believe the same for silver but on steroids compared to gold. Don’t forget that silver is used massively in industry and is particularly necessary for the green revolution which is taking place.
Our friend, Andy Schectman (CEO of Miles Franklin) recently said on a podcast that 370 MILLION ounces of silver have disappeared from the COMEX and LBMA. I fully expect that, at some time, you will see a major squeeze on the silver price. Remember that, as Warren Buffett says “price is what you pay- value is what you get”.
With every dollar or any other currency that are conjured up from nowhere the VALUE of real stuff goes up. Sometimes, because of the ability of those conjuring up the cash to manipulate prices to their own advantage by overwhelming the “markets” to either prop up or force down prices, the PRICE is divorced from the REAL VALUE. This is the main reason that I have written for years that when this house of cards comes down and real price discovery starts (we are likely in the beginning of that now) most people will be STUNNED when they find out the level of fraud that has taken place over the years.
The PRICE of stocks, bonds and real estate that have been artificially propped up through low interest rates and purchasing of those assets by central banks and their buddies will likely collapse. Those assets that have been artificially repressed will likely skyrocket as the mechanisms that kept them down are overwhelmed by banks and others who recognize what VALUE actually is again.
The past 50 years or so have been a real party for the few at the top where they have conjured up cash out of nowhere and overwhelmed “markets” and manipulated prices so that they could make a fortune producing nothing but moving prices to benefit themselves. In the beginning nobody really noticed but over time, as the real economy started to suffer and imbalances became too large to dismiss, the masses are finally starting to realize what has been happening.
In Asia and a lot of the rest of the world- including Africa, the Middle East and South America they are following Russia’s lead and starting to dictate the rules of trade with the expressed desire to take the money-changers out of the equation and get back to true price discovery. This would mean that supply and demand and mark-to-market pricing would be back and the illusion of faux demand (caused by “money from nowhere”) would be banned. In addition, these entities are also discussing how to bypass the US dollar in bilateral trades. They are discussing using their own currencies backed by the commodities they produce. This would limit the amount of “money” that these countries could conjure up and put the world on a far more firm footing.
The greatest threat- as I see it- is a dying empire (USA) that appears willing to do ANYTHING- possibly including nuclear war- to keep power that is obviously being undermined day after day.
It appears that all efforts by almost anyone outside of a few allies (and that group is shrinking) is met with a cold shoulder and threats against all that don’t toe the line. This, while our main competition is aligning most of the rest of the world against us not only financially but also culturally and most likely militarily if we are all stupid enough to start a shooting war that it is likely no one could win.
While I love our country I am embarrassed and ashamed at our “leadership” and their unwillingness to talk peace, to talk security for US, to talk about rebuilding our infrastructure- instead of destroying others- and most of all the propaganda and lies to get as many unsuspecting citizens to follow their lead.
I believe we are witnessing the downfall of the greatest country that has ever existed and it is being taken down- as predicted- not from outside forces but from within- of course with a lot of help from outside forces.
I believe we should all be preparing and have our wealth stored in HARD ASSETS. That could mean almost anything but to me some gold and silver would be good along with food, water, energy, and a means to protect (or defend) your wealth.
I think it is obvious to most that this situation can’t exist for too much longer.
Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not purport to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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