There is a lot of information being disseminated out there. Too bad a lot of it is more mis-information than facts. I see many people like Steve Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow coming out and talking up the economy while I am witnessing a depression take place right in front of my eyes. I am watching small businesses be destroyed by what I believe to be grossly misguided policies while many huge companies are not only allowed to operate mostly unhindered but are also being propped up with cheap money from the government via the Fed.
How is it that the virus is so deadly at small companies but doesn’t spread at large companies? I also heard a great question- if the virus IS so deadly how come homeless people aren’t dropping like flies? Pretty good question in my opinion since they have virtually no protection and yet I hear very little about that section of the population having a problem. My guess is that this has been politicized and the recent revelations are being ignored in the mainstream media like:
- CDC reports Covid-19 death rate is 0.26% (See that anywhere in the MSM?)
- According to Bank of America, the rate of hospitalizations due to Covid-19, has decreased by 26% in the last 23 days. (Haven’t seen that reported all I hear is about “cases”)
- Most of the massive precautions taken in the beginning of this pandemic like ships in NY harbor and triage units set up in many hospitals have been retired because of a lack of necessity.
- In the beginning it was “flatten the curve”. Once that was handled, now it is “new cases”. My question is if you are healthy and have around a 99.9% chance of full recovery why are many states choosing not only not to fully reopen but also pulling back on lifted restrictions?
- Why are those “in charge” not following their own rules- like Gov. Wolf in Pennsylvania out protesting and Mayor Di Blasio in NYC painting BLM on the streets?
- They are arresting people who have large parties but are letting the protests and riots continue while also letting criminals walk free to create more havoc. Sorry but to me that is too stupid to be stupid- meaning this must be part of a destabilization plan.
It appears to me that new data is being deliberately withheld from the public to keep them scared and masked for as long as possible. I believe this is all about controlling the populace as the economy is destroyed right before our eyes.
While those in charge are giving the illusion of normalcy by “printing” trillions of dollars to make up for the lack of economic activity the economic numbers reveal how dire our situation is becoming.
Always keep in mind the dollars and other currencies being conjured up out of nowhere create no assets or necessities of life. It just creates the illusion of productive labor where none exists. It actually just helps those with no job or income pretend for a while that all is well.
After a welcome respite last week from over a million job losses for 17 weeks in a row we were right back at it this week with over 1.1 MILLION newly unemployed in this week’s report.
While Wal-Mart and other retailers have announced decent earnings for the second quarter (mainly because of the government’s $2 plus trillion in income payments to individuals and companies to make up for lost wages) their forecast for future quarters was far less rosy as the income replacement may be reduced. This is another clear sign that businesses are not very bullish going forward.
The riots are also not helping as Macys has announced they will NOT reopen their Chicago store after looters destroyed it last week. Can you blame them? New York City may not be the same for decades as violent crime along with most of its attractions like Broadway, fine dining and many landmarks being shut down is keeping the hotels empty and the streets mostly deserted.
For those of you who watch mainstream media news (I don’t care which channel- they are all the same) I have been in NYC and saw with my own eyes what the “peaceful protestors” have done to that city. The REAL crime is that the leadership of NY from the state level to the mayor have allowed this to happen.
Not only in New York but in Portland, Seattle and many other large cities you have district attorneys who are NOT prosecuting crimes for laws that they have sworn to uphold. This is emboldening the radical fringes of society to breakdown the fabric of our society and create havoc on our streets leading to more bankruptcies of businesses and an exodus out of these cities to a perceived safer place. This will not help in any way to create an economic recovery. In all likelihood, it will add to the long-term misery that appears to just be beginning.
It is becoming painfully apparent that there will be no V-shaped recovery despite the rosy outlook of Mnuchin, Kudlow and Co.
The fact of the matter is that many were in such bad shape PRIOR to this pandemic that just a couple of weeks with no income led to disaster until the Fed’s “free money” allowed them some breathing room.
If we really had “the greatest economy of all time” would it have collapsed at warp speed like it did? Would there be miles long lines for food supplies across the country if all was so great? Would small businesses be closing in droves if they were in great shape?
Would there be headlines like:
- “World Trade Plunged To ‘Lowest Levels’ On Record In June (Zerohedge)
- Seattle Business Owners Blast City Leaders as Stores Remain Shut (Fox Business)
- Fed Officials Worried About Withdrawal of Government Support, Minutes Show (Fox Business) (basically they are showing that the economy could collapse without the conjuring up of trillions to pretend that all is well).
- Hotel Industry Warns of Unprecedented Surge In Coronavirus-Related Foreclosures (Fox Business)
- Mortgage Loan Delinquencies Surge Led By First-time Homebuyers (Fox Business) (I guess nobody told these folks about the forbearance plans or maybe they have already had their plans expire.)
It appears to me that there is no end to this in sight and that “printing, buying and pretending” will continue in unlimited (the Fed’s own words) amounts. Because of this backdrop, I also believe that we will see a lot more upside in the metals markets because of either inflation or deflation but mostly because of debasing the US dollar and other currencies along with the uncertainty that is growing day by day in financial markets and in everyday life.
Regardless of the games the banks are playing to keep the metals prices artificially suppressed I believe prices are moving FAR higher. There have been a few days lately- after a large run-up where prices have pulled back hard. That is not a surprise and may actually prove to be longer-term bullish.
Again, for those of you who ridiculed me for years as I was exposing the fraud in the metals markets (and basically in most other markets also) this headline:
“Bank Of Nova Scotia Pays $127 Million In Fines Over Criminal Precious Metal Manipulation” I don’t think they would pay a fine for a theory. Add this to the RICO filing against JP Morgan’s Precious Metals Trading Desk and the Deutsche Bank conviction for basically the same actions and you have a pretty clear picture that the metals have indeed been manipulated for a long time.
It also appears that the game may be nearing an end as getting physical delivery is getting harder and harder to source.
While the financial game shows baffle many day after day with stories the only reason “markets” are moving up is central bank “printing and buying”. It is likely without that one beam of support the stock “markets” could be 80% lower than where they currently reside. If bonds weren’t being bought in the trillions by banks, central banks and their buddies where would an actual market put rates?
If gold and silver were not being suppressed in the paper markets where would their actual value be?
These are questions that are likely to be answered in the near future.
Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not purport to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Commodities are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Commodities are volatile investments and should only be a small part of a diversified portfolio. There may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices are overall rising.
Precious Metals, including gold, are subject to special risks including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation, the market is relatively limited, the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability and the market is unregulated.
Diversification does not ensure gains nor protect against loss. Companies mentioned are being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Investing involves risk regardless of strategy.