I have written many times that I believe that silver is the most undervalued asset on the planet. I still believe it-even though the price has risen approximately 25% here in 2025.
The price suppression scheme that has been exposed in numerous court cases- and has been visible on the charts for over a decade- has made the likelihood of a MAJOR price move higher much more likely. The reason is that, as major banks and others suppress the price, the economics make no sense when pondering whether to find new supplies. Add to that the myriad of uses for silver and you have a perfect storm for a far higher price at some point.
According to Bloomberg, silver has been in a structural deficit since 2021. What that means is that the demand for the metal has outpaced supply. The cumulative shortfall from 2021-2025 has been 800 MILLION ounces or 25,000 TONS that were used or purchased- more than what was actually produced. At some point this will have a major impact.
It does not pay to try and pick a time because there are powerful financial sources that have kept the suppression scheme going for far longer than I could have ever imagined.
The main reasons for a meaningful revaluation are:
· Structural supply deficits for years with no end in sight. Demand continues higher because of solar buildouts (In 2015 solar accounted for 5.6% of silver demand. In 2024 it was 17%). Consumer electronics, power grid components, and 5G networks.
Industrial demands account for 59% of silver usage.
· War. This increases the need for “money” to be created which is the definition of inflation- increasing money supply. In this case hard assets rise in price. In addition, most new-era bombs have substantial amounts of silver. For example, the Tomahawk missile has 500 oz. in each missile.
· Since gold has seen substantial gains in the past few years and silver has lagged in price the gold to silver ratio has been over 100:1 in the recent past. This means that it took one hundred ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. As I write this the ratio is about 86:1 because silver has been moving higher as of late. When gold gets too expensive many investors will switch to silver which is more attainable for the average person whether in the USA, India or anywhere else. Silver is extracted at 15:1 but historically trades around 45:1. Why? I do not know.
· Most silver is actually mined as a byproduct of mining for other metals. Mines are not an easy project to start and often take years and sometimes decades to produce. There are very few companies that just mine for silver. In short, there are not many options for new supply in the short-term.
While I continue to believe that gold will continue higher and will likely be less volatile than silver, it appears to me that the setup for silver is more favorable at this time.
I am also a bit more bullish on the companies that mine the gold and silver also. My bullishness here is that Wall Street still has a miniscule amount of investment or interest at all in this sector. Just a small allocation to this sector- since it is so small- could lead to a massive upside move.
With the price of the metals rising the companies that produce the metals are making record amounts of cash. About 25% of the all-in costs for production is for energy. Since gold is near all-time highs vs. oil that is another tailwind for the shares.
Of course, with hard assets, particularly if you have them in your possession, there is far less risk of (mining) accidents, geopolitical risk, and standard risks that all companies face with regulation, labor issues, etc.
I believe that the real move will come when reality rears its ugly head, and the stock “markets” reveal their true VALUE that has NOTHING to do with the PRICE that stocks are trading at. While we cannot know when that actually happens it is easy to see when we look at the numbers the question is not if- but WHEN?
There are many signs that silver supply is drying up. If there is a failure to deliver- and there are record amounts of supply leaving the COMEX- it could lead to a major move in the price as the paper schemes that give the illusion of Far more supply than actually exists unravels and the real supply/demand equation is revealed.
Keep in mind with each and every intervention- whether it be buying stocks and bonds to keep PRICES elevated or selling (naked short) gold and silver to keep the price suppressed- the chasm that has to be filled when the games end gets wider with each purchase or sale. This has been going on for decades so the action should be a sight to behold. Don’t hold your breath but …
Be Prepared!
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