As we head into the second half of 2025, I thought it would be a good idea to see where we currently stand and where we might be headed in the next 6 months.

I stated at the beginning of the year that by year’s end we might not recognize the economy we see today. I still believe the same right now.

After a rough start to the year for the major stock indexes, they have recently rallied on the back of MAJOR corporate buybacks and algorithmic trading by bots following headlines and chart numbers- all masterfully manipulated to prop up the illusion as a strong market and therefore-economy. Currently, the economic numbers and stock “markets” have little to no correlation. Another MAJOR reason for the uptick would be the demolition of our US dollar’s purchasing power.

While things APPEAR to be tranquil there is a lot of turbulence under these “markets.” An interesting note came from Zero hedge where, while the S&P index is hitting all-time highs, there are currently ONLY 22 OF 500 companies that are at all-time highs. Historically, this is a VERY bad sign going forward. NO MARKET BREADTH.

As I write this on July 1st, gold has risen 25% since January 1, 2025. Silver has risen 14% and large gold miners have risen 49% and juniors 52% overall.

I believe that this outperformance is just beginning. The artificially propped-up “markets” are showing serious signs of fatigue while the artificially suppressed price of hard assets- mainly gold and silver are coming to life on the back of instability, war, and money “printing” to give the illusion of normalcy.

While most people are mesmerized by the financial game shows to keep their eye on the “markets” the real action is taking place in the bond “market” where it is obvious that the Fed- while not announcing anything is buying massive amounts of US debt as the rest of the world is running from the US dollar and our unpayable (without conjuring up the cash from nowhere) debt.

If the Fed were not buying hundreds of billions in US debt our rates would be skyrocketing. Remember, with a sentence they can reduce the overnight interest rate. All other bonds must be BOUGHT to lower the rates. This means even more massive “printing” and higher inflation for all of us.

There is a lot of talk and propaganda to sell us on lower interest rates. So why has Powell not lowered the rates? I guess he has his reasons. My guess is that he realizes that the dollar has lost nearly 11% vs. other currencies JUST THIS YEAR. Remember, these comparisons are to other currencies- mainly the Euro, Yen, and British Pound. The comparison to GOLD is far worse. Just imagine if Mr. Powell HAD reduced rates. No telling how bad it would look then.

What I have written is what HAS ALREADY HAPPENED in 2025.

My guesses for the rest of the year are:

· BRICS summit July 6-8 in Brazil will add new members and will strengthen ties between regional trading partners- further isolating the USA and the US dollar leading to more dollar weakness and higher inflation for you and me.

· Fed will be forced to lower rates possibly starting as early as mid-July- again leading to further dollar weakness and higher costs for all of us.

· China will quietly advance their gold-linked yuan settlement system where particularly oil producers can settle trades in Yuan and convert to gold.

· Blockchain technology will be implemented to tokenize everything. BIS has already laid this out. While it may not be visible to most by the end of this year all of the pieces appear to be in place.

· Real Estate prices will fall further than most believe possible at this time. This will be a multi-year process but will likely heat up meaningfully in the next 6 months on the back of major layoffs, major price increases for necessities and a lack of customers for those counting on others to pay the bills.

· Unemployment will be a MAJOR FACTOR. According to Challenger, Gray and Christmas US employers have already announced 47% more job cuts in May ’25 vs. May ’24 and US employers have announced 80% more job cuts in the first 5 months of 2025 than in the first five months of 2024.

· The many wars that we are involved in are NOT over. I expect there will be further escalation in the next 6 months and that we may not be just watching on TV this time. (Still more “money printing” needed).

It appears to me that the era of the “owners” of capital that have been taking more and more of the economic pie from the average wage earners is about to be reversed. I believe that we will all learn that without production and life-sustaining goods all of the debt in the world will be of no use. The days of counting debt as growth are coming to an end. Inflation will see to it.

While I am sure many will believe that I am being negative- I am actually just commenting on what is easily visible for anyone caring to go past the headlines and 24/7 propaganda to keep most people blissfully unaware of how bad our economy and outlook actually are.

The sad part of this is that most people will be taken by surprise when the SHTF because they have been misdirected and purposefully deceived.

Be Prepared!

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