It is with great sorrow that I am watching many of my favorite cities become shooting galleries and once beautiful places being turned into outdoor homeless shelters. I am also appalled at the destruction of beautiful properties, statues and architecture that remind us of our past.
I saw somebody actually say that “I’ll bet those protesting wouldn’t feel that way!” All I can say is get a grip! There are VERY few who can actually say they have ANY type of privilege. Certainly when I moved to NYC and knew about 2 people in the world there with my guitar in one hand- all of my earthly possessions in my other hand and about $500.00 in my pocket it didn’t take long to find out that I was going to have to work exceedingly hard just to survive- getting wealthy wasn’t even on my mind at that time. Take a hike with the “privilege” talk. Those that have great role models, mentors and teachers- regardless of race or creed are the privileged.
If anyone follows history, you will notice the similarities taking place today and from Nazi Germany in the 1930s. In Germany books were burnt and any and all opposition was met with swift and brutal actions. Today, while some are still burning books, the new way to stifle free speech and free thought is to turn off those with differing opinions YouTube channels, shut down people’s Twitter accounts and to have fake “fact-checkers” who were outed this week as ex-CNN reporters. People are getting beaten and even shot for not towing the BLM line. Heaven forbid you show support for the president- you could really get it! Goebbels would be green with envy if he could see the tools the new propaganda ministers have today! All the major networks are all in on it too. Look up Project Mockingbird.
Another important fact is that the evil that took over Germany at the time was likely a direct result of their currency collapse in the early 1920s which allowed the Nazis to tap into the frustration the people had with their economic problems and offer a solution. When we “print” money we basically negate the value of labor. People can work as hard as they want but if an entity can conjure up trillions of currency units with a few clicks on a key board and front-run purchases it gets hard to take when the average person works harder and harder and can afford less and less for his or her labor.
It is also important to note that where you have an educated and moral public it is far more unlikely that those in charge could ever get away with this type of theft.
Our country is such a mess that often we don’t pay attention to other parts of the world. An EXTREMELY disturbing video was shown in the UK which was also eerily reminiscent of Nazi Germany where Chinese Muslims were blindfolded, tied up and kneeling before being put on a train. This has been going on for some time now and Christians and Falun Gong have also been sent to re-education camps where there are reports of organ harvesting and forced labor.
Hey- but don’t worry- the “markets” are up! Keep watching that and don’t worry that the economy is not recovering in any meaningful manner and is likely slipping again as more places are pulling back reopening. Also don’t worry that the majority of stocks are in a bear market and that only a handful of companies are responsible for the bulk of this run-up. Also pay NO attention to things like earnings, projections or valuations because the central banks will just keep buying.
Another interesting item is that since May1, 2020 the S&P rose 314 points. Not really a surprise with trillions being thrown around but in an interesting twist- during that same timeframe the S&P rose 319 points in overnight trading (US markets closed) and LOST 5 points when the US markets were opened.
I guess those 15 central banks getting cash from the Fed are working overtime to help keep the “markets” elevated.
In the meantime, the actual economy, which I have chronicled in this article for the last 3 years, continues to implode. The last pieces of “great” news?
- 4 million more people filed for unemployment last week- that makes 18 straight weeks over 1 million and also is an increase from last week reversing an improving trend. (Over 52 million!)
- The Baltic Dry Index sunk to a 1-month low. The BDI is an index of the Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax Timecharters Averages, used by investors as a proxy for shipping conditions, and or world trade. Long story short- world trade is contracting again also.
- Lumber futures fade from two-year highs as recovery stalls. (Could be showing weakness in homebuilding in particular).
- Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies are near record levels even though we are still very early in this crisis and that many foreclosures and bankruptcies are being held off because of Fed “printing” , handouts and laws to stave off the tsunami of commercial and residential bankruptcies which are likely coming soon. According to Zerohedge $20 Billion in CMBS loans have exposure to chains like JC Penney, Nieman Marcus and Macys.
- Fed Bank of Atlanta reports that 2nd quarter GDP is estimated to have declined 35% at an annualized rate. To put that into perspective it is 4 times more than the 4th quarter of 2008. This is with the government and the Fed combining to inject over $5 trillion into the economy- TRULY unprecedented.
Is it any wonder that those in charge and their minions on the financial game shows want to keep your mind off of reality and have you focus on the “markets”?
Unfortunately, even with more expected stimulus this tragedy is going to be becoming all too real in the near future as many jobs are not going to be coming back. It is entirely possible that we are in the beginning stages of UBI (Universal Basic Income) not because we can afford it (it will all be conjured up out of nowhere but we will still owe it and be paying interest on it!) but because many could starve without it. What nobody wants to talk about are the long-term consequences of paying it (something for nothing) in losing many productive people that should be working and the massive amounts of debt that we would have to add on to our already unpayable (with the dollar at its current value) debt that we have already rung up.
To summarize, the economy is still moving in slow motion with no real time frame for meaningful improvement. The government and Fed have gone down the path of trying to subsidize the economic losses and keep the entire economy from a debt implosion. Without meaningful economic growth the interventions will have to get exponentially bigger and bigger- along with our crushing debts that are growing exponentially as we speak.
I believe that almost everyone who is paying attention can now see what I have been talking about for 10 years. All prices are fake. Some fake high- some fake low but all manipulated and fake nonetheless.
It appears that the wheels may be coming off of gold and silver. What I mean is for the banks that have held the price back while they were loading up the last few years it appears their short positions are in a world of trouble right now. If the “paper caper” where banks basically sell non-existent gold or silver into the “market” with a market order (almost insuring the price will fall at least temporarily) should fail because of entities demanding physical delivery- remember this is just a paper contract-the “paper caper” could come to an abrupt end and lead to a price discovery that would take almost everyone by surprise.
My opinion is that right now the stock “markets” have a limited upside and substantial downside risk.
I also believe that bonds will be propped up at all costs because the economy needs low rates- it appears forever right now but there is a risk that the Fed loses control at some point.
Gold and silver have no counter party risk, have been artificially suppressed for over a decade and with all of the “printing and buying” taking place the US dollar should come under severe pressure in the near future leading to higher prices for just about everything. It appears that the world is finally waking up to the fact that “printing” only works for a while but once you start- you can’t stop without causing massive pain.
Where currencies struggle- gold shines. According to Barrons since 2001 gold is up over 600% against the dollar. In Argentina it is up over 50,000%. They can’t even calculate how much it is up against the Venezuelan Bolivar. Suffice it to say that at last look it took over 3 million Bolivars for a cup of coffee while a one-ounce silver coin could feed a family of 4 for a month- that is if you can find any food there.
Time is short if you are keeping your fingers crossed that this will all just go away. Let’s hope it does but hope is NOT a plan- particularly in times like these.
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