When I was predicting far higher inflation earlier this year, I was not even aware of the current war. I was just looking at the numbers like $10 TRILLION in US Treasuries coming due in 2026, $2 TRIILION plus (wars, etc. excluded) in new debt necessary to continue our prolific spending that we cannot actually afford outside of conjuring up the cash and the lack of options for reducing spending.

Since the war began, I have had to revise what I was thinking previously.

While many may argue that a slowing economy could put a cap on inflation that would assume that those “in charge” would allow the economy to collapse. If that actually happened there would likely be chaos in the streets and possibly mass starvation. My guess is that the “printing” is likely to grow exponentially due to a collapsing economy- leading to more dependence- and ultimately a FAR weaker US dollar because of even more cash conjuring to cover current spending, and to retire maturing debt. This is, as our prior benefactors have become sellers rather than buyers, and we are seeing unconstrained military spending.

Many who look at the propaganda put out by the financial game shows might say that “jobs are strong.” That is the narrative. Too bad it is not true. They announce 730,000 new jobs that are advertised. Too bad that over 400,000 fewer jobs existed at the end of May than in the beginning. I guess you can advertise jobs but are they real? Even the way they report the “numbers” a person who works two jobs (probably out of necessity), it is counted as a new job. Need a third job? You count three times! This is a sign that many are accepting that one job is not paying the increasing bills. ADP reports that the jobs data is anonymized. That is a fancy word for taking identities away so that a person can count multiple times in the number. Let’s not forget about the 105 MILLION working age people who are conveniently also excluded when the unemployment “numbers” are reported. The addition of those people- who should not be excluded if an honest number were desired- would put us in a worse spot jobs-wise than in the great depression. (USDebtclock.org)

Now we have shortages of critical materials being reported by S&P Global. They are warning that supplier shortfalls are running 2.5 X the normal level. Oil shortages are 12.5 X their long-term trend. They are also reporting that critical commodities for agriculture and production of goods like oil, chemicals, polymers, polyethylene, PVC, Rubber, Timber, textiles, aluminum, copper, iron, steel, and stainless steel are in short supply. Remember supply and demand. Less supply leads to higher prices. Also, remember that this is taking place as the USA is exporting massive amounts of oil mainly to Europe- depleting our stockpiles at a record pace. This is likely to push off the effects of this for a while.

Jeffrie Currie, of the Carlyle Group- formerly of Goldman Sachs, is warning that Asia is already close to minimum operating levels and that here in the USA we could see problems with supply as early as July. In Australia they have already passed legislation for rationing.

Kate McShane- Goldman Sachs analyst spoke with many large companies and discovered that they have so far been able to absorb the rising costs, but all are expressing concern in the longer term. This is not good for their bottom lines and could lead to substantial price inflation if margins are not sacrificed. (History says WE PAY).

The reason I am writing about this now is that all of these circumstances imply FAR higher inflation as we get further into 2026.

The bond “market” is noticing this as, even as the Fed is trying to manipulate rates- and therefore prices also, rates are rising.

Central Banks have been aware of this situation for years and have front-run the public by buying record amounts of gold in the past 5 years. Just recently, Gold has replaced US Treasuries as the #1 asset on central bank balance sheets. They are more than willing to manipulate the price to keep us out of the market so they can get more gold for less fiat currency. They manipulate the PRICE to make gold look RISKY while they report it on their balance sheets as “RISKLESS.” They are also thrilled when the financial game shows regurgitate that rising interest rates are bad for gold.

Anyone who would care to look into it would realize that this is simply not true and easy to debunk.

In the 1970’s interest rates rose to 18%. During that runup in rates gold moved from $35.00 per ounce to $800.00 per ounce. More recently, as rates rose from 0% to 4.5% gold went from $2000.00 per ounce to $4500.00 per ounce. Tell me again how rising rates hurt gold.

The fact of the matter is that gold rises in periods of geopolitical conflict, lack of trust in governments and economies. The lack of trust comes from the lack of a rule of law or from unbridled “printing” that undermines national currencies. All of these are in play right now.

I have also read in Zero hedge that central banks are now also loading up on silver. The supply deficit may be reaching a critical level leading to FAR higher prices.

There appears to be a full-court press to keep the public in the dark about how bad our economy is and how likely it is to get far worse before getting better. The numbers are massaged (being EXCEEDINGLY kind), the headlines are misleading at best but since most people are busy trying to get by that is what they see.

Instead of profits, losses and future valuations “markets” are being moved by tweets, headlines, and bombs. This is a SICK situation where the main street economy is collapsing before our eyes, and the “market” is being manipulated higher and higher to give the illusion that ALL IS WELL! Matthew Piepenberg put it best when he said that investors are currently paying maximum prices for unprecedented valuation risk and historically minimal dividend income. The hope of “investors” (I use that term VERY loosely) is to Buy High and Sell Higher. I will stick with buy low- sell high.

I have asked in the past, but it is important to ask again- WHAT IS THE VALUE OF a promise that cannot be kept? There is plenty of math out there that tells me we will find out soon.

Personally, I will take a hard asset rather than promises to repay which look shaky- at best.

Be Prepared!

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