For many years I have been writing about the idea that we have been in a depression since 2008- at least. Many laugh it off and point to the rising stock markets and low bond yields (high bond prices) as proof that I must be out of my mind.

Does it appear to anyone that the stock market has absolutely ANYTHING in common with the real economy anymore? As the economy has been in freefall for years the “markets” have moved markedly higher.

Many also laughed when I was writing as far back as 2013 about the manipulation of metals markets and, later on, about the manipulation of virtually ALL “markets”. I always use “ “ with markets because in a true market there are willing buyers and willing sellers with little to no manipulation. Our “markets” have become a rigged casino that is fully manipulated so that there is no true price discovery in almost any asset.

Let me ask a simple question: Without the central banks conjuring up hundreds of trillions of currency units out of nowhere (and charging interest on it) and buying assets (mainly stocks and bonds) creating FAR more demand than would exist in nature where would our “markets” be? Where would our economy be?

If the Fed stopped their “printing” and buying of US Treasuries would we even have a government? A military? We are, on the federal level spending (admitted to) $6.2 TRILLION dollars this year. We are collecting 4.2 Trillion in taxes (with the economy slowing down so maybe not quite what they are expecting). That $2 TRILLION that has to be conjured up from nowhere to fund our extravagant overspending. If stopped, what would be cut? Housing subsidies? Food subsidies? Energy subsidies? Health insurance subsidies?

When you can “print” unlimited amounts of cash from nowhere you can hide the rot in the system for a long time and keep most people clueless about the precarious position we are actually in. The fact of the matter is without those hundreds of trillions in currency units EVERYONE would likely know that we have been in a depression for a long time that has been masked by deliberate misinformation and slight of hand.

So far, they got away with it because inflation was relegated to financial “markets” while consumer inflation was somewhat tame for a long time. This gave them the leeway to keep on “printing and buying”. Now, as former middle class Americans are getting hammered from every angle with rising prices, the jig may be up.

Stop “printing” and an almost immediate collapse could be anticipated. Keep “printing” and prices will likely continue to spiral higher. Raising interest rates will just make it tougher for people, companies, municipalities, cities, states and our Federal government to continue spending and servicing what appear to be unserviceable debts going forward- particularly with the economy showing signs of considerable weakness in almost all areas.

In my opinion the smoke and mirrors MUST continue.

A few cases are:

  • The US dollar has been strong. While somewhat true, it is only “strong” when measured against weaker fiat currencies like the Euro and the Yen. If the US dollar was really “strong” would you be paying $5.00 for a gallon of gas? Would you need a loan to go to the grocery store?
  • We have full employment (while nearly a 100 MILLION working age people are conveniently left out of the numbers). We actually have an unemployment rate that is HIGHER than the great depression. (ShadowStats)
  • Everybody is RICH. Wages are rising. Too bad prices are rising FAR faster. Of course, by massaging the numbers it looks like many are not falling too far behind but in the real world and calculating the inflation like it was calculated in the 1980s wages are falling drastically when compared to rising prices. Real inflation is DOUBLE the reported numbers. (ShadowStats)
  • If things are so bad where are the bread lines? They are hidden in plain sight as people now have SNAP cards, etc. I know of MANY working people who still rely on food subsidies to survive. SICK! Food pantries have never been busier.
  • Covid caused a “market” crash in 2020. While it didn’t help, the “market” was in huge trouble in 2019 until the Fed made loans of over $4.5 TRILLION from Sept. 2019-December 2019. They needed an excuse. By July 2020 it was over 11 TRILLION. (Wall Street on Parade)
  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the cause of our inflation. Really? It may be making it worse but our closing of pipelines, emptying our strategic reserves of oil and shipping it overseas is likely a larger problem. 23 food processing and fertilizer plants here in the US blowing up or burning down since January will likely not help us with food later on this year. To me, this is a little too much destruction in one industry to be a coincidence. This, at the same time we are having dustbowl conditions in the plains and California is not able to farm like they would like to because of a lack of water. Of course, since the California government is who is allowing their water supply to drain into the Pacific to save two species of fish this is a man- made problem. Another man-made problem is our electric grid which many are warning will not be able to provide all the necessary electricity this summer. Of course, we have closed 3 nuclear plants this year and- to my great surprise- this is where they are warning that the danger is greatest.
  • We have a bird flu problem where egg production is threatened and millions of chickens have been destroyed.
  •  Month after month the “experts” are surprised at the weak numbers. WHY?
  • Gold is risky! They would like everyone to believe that as major banks, central banks and their buddies are buying it in record amounts- while suppressing the price of course. There are two assets central banks can list as “riskless” on their balance sheet US Treasuries and Gold. Personally, I would count on the gold and not the Treasuries at this time. I have no doubt that the Treasuries will get paid but I also believe the purchasing power of the repayment will be far less than was anticipated. Treasury notes still depend on a third party to repay while gold is an asset- not a liability.

 It appears to me that the mainstream media is in on the Illusion. As a matter of fact, a Google executive assured the Davos crowd at the World Economic Forum that they would “continue to control the narrative”.

Don’t fall for it.

Be Prepared!

What is the VALUE of a promise that cannot be kept?

Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not purport to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

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