It appears to me that there is a compelling case at this time for having a plan and sticking to it if you believe that your outlook will prove to be correct. Regardless of what you may be invested in, the last few months have been- to say the least- interesting and volatile.

One of the main reasons for the volatility is that many trades are not done by individual investors but are done by computers using algorithms, prices, and headlines to make trades. Sometimes staggeringly large trades that can move “markets.”

Just Wednesday morning I saw on Fox News a headline that Operation Epic Fury is over. Almost all assets went flying higher. As I went into my office, I also saw that Iran has not agreed to anything and that they are not willing to be bullied into a deal. Having said that, most of the gains in most assets (oil excluded as it got hammered on the news) held.

All of this paper trading has a large effect on the perceived price of oil, gold, silver, etc. but the physical market is actually demanding FAR higher prices to access the physical asset.

Just a couple of weeks ago I pointed out that, at that time, the price for a barrel of oil was set at around $88.00. The actual price to get physical oil in Asia and the Middle East was as much as $200.00 per barrel at one point and was around $150.00 when I wrote that article.

Since oil is a huge input in our economy knowing the actual cost becomes extremely important. Not only do soaring prices for oil drive up transportation costs but also drives up the price of most inputs to production. Anyone running a company knows that having a reliable cost structure is imperative for future planning and pricing. The trading robots and traders- who produce NOTHING but manipulate prices pose a moral hazard for our entire economy. This is in addition to the front-running trades being made just prior to major announcements that many insiders know will move “markets” in a certain direction. Greg Mannarino reported that $1.7 BILLION in oil contracts changed hands in the hours proceeding the latest “announcement”.

A lot of people are asking me about why, if we produce so much oil, why prices continue to rise. There are many reasons. First of all, we are not being told MANY things that those “in charge” would like to keep quiet and the lapdog media is complying.

These would include:

· We are seeing huge drawdowns in US energy inventory. (API)

· Instead of increasing production, US crude production is trending lower- not higher. You cannot get production ramped up quickly and prior to the war the oil price was too low to make US production profitable.

· The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (which our president vowed to refill) is seeing massive drawdowns and is being EXPORTED to other countries to prop up THEIR economies. If the oil was NOT exported and used internally, we may have had lower prices. It has been reported that if the current trend continues our Strategic reserves will be EMPTY in 4 months.

· The US has sent out at least 1.5 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY of diesel since the week of April 3rd. This is happening as our truckers are paying over $6.00 for a gallon of diesel- increasing OUR overall costs. (Bloomberg)

For anyone who is thinking this will end soon here is a quote from the CFO of Equinor (Norway’s national oil company). “When the strait opens, we do believe it will take a half a year for oil to get back to normal.” “For gas, it will take much longer.” Translation: The damage is already done and the longer this takes place the worse it is likely to get.

On gold, central banks are on a buying binge. It was tempered by some sales by Turkey and others, but the first quarter saw central banks buy a net of 273 TONS of gold. If the sales for liquidity were not made, the first quarter could have seen central banks buying close to a record amount. While wild price swings give the ILLUSION of volatility the reality is that those “in charge” know that gold has been used as money for over five thousand years. They also know that it is the most desired asset to hold when there is a lack of trust in governments, banks, geopolitical upheavals, money “printing,” etc.

They also do not like competition so even though they list gold as “RISKLESS” on their balance sheets they manipulate the price to feign volatility and buy as much as they can.

Those that “print” the “money” are the biggest buyers of GOLD because they know that the product they produce (fiat currencies) have NO INTRINSIC VALUE and are a debt-based instrument. They are rushing towards ASSETS and replacing “promises to repay.”

It is not a feeling or belief- it is MATH. The world is so indebted that there is no chance that the debt can even be serviced without “printing” money. This means that the conjuring of cash is growing exponentially with no end in sight. What is the VALUE of a good that produces NOTHING and you can get trillions of with a few clicks on a mouse?

Remember- when you see the price of gold rise it is not gold rising but fiat currencies FALLING. They still have a long way to go.

Silver was the belle of the ball until the orchestrated crash took place at the end of January. The damage has still not been repaired in the paper “markets.” However, if you want an ounce of silver in China you will pay $100.00 per ounce. This is physical delivery versus a paper promise to deliver. When lack of supply is exposed, which price do you think will win out- the fake paper price or the physical price? Those that need the physical asset will pay up to keep production going.

There are signs that big money is seeing the problem. ETFs that have paper silver are seeing massive outflows while ETFs that have physical holdings are seeing massive inflows. In addition, silver stockpiles are being cleaned out at the COMEX as entities are demanding physical delivery. The COMEX was never designed to be a delivery mechanism. This could be the fuse that propels silver FAR higher. It could happen at any time.

Too many people are being blinded by paper games and propaganda. Do some research and ask yourself if what you are being bombarded with resembles what you are seeing with your own eyes.

Be Prepared!

Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not prove to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

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