It is pretty obvious that we are in big economic trouble even though those “in charge” are doing their best to hide it. The most glaring example is, of course, the war and the impact it is having on MANY commodities- not just oil. The narrative that oil (or other commodities) will rise and then magically fall back is in full swing. The reality is that the impact of supply disruptions has barely started to be felt. It is FAR more likely that the economic pain will start in earnest later on in the year as supply disruptions and the “printing” that will have to take place to give the illusion of normalcy work their way through the economy.

Many people are being lulled to sleep because they see no immediate impact on store shelves (other than far higher prices) and, based on the traffic I see it appears that many are not materially impacted by higher gas prices- YET.

In addition, higher prices are just one piece to the puzzle as the real impact of this war could be a lack of SUPPLY of all we need to survive. The longer this drags on, the more certain we can be that almost all corners of our economy will be impacted.

This war may be the diversion that those “in charge” use to blame the economic devastation that appears to be on the way. The real reason, in my opinion, is that those “in charge” have run up debts so far that they have to conjure up cash from nowhere to give the illusion that we are still productive and solvent. Neither is currently true. The price of things keeps rising because those “in charge” keep “printing” causing exponentially more cash but creating NO NEW GOODS to correspond to the new supply of currency. This is happening globally.

While many are focusing on the scary enough $39 TRILLION US deficit, I have mentioned that this is the tip of the iceberg. Keep in mind that wars, VA benefits, and MANY other debts are off the books- meaning NOT INCLUDED. On March 17, 2026, the US Treasury released the 2025 financial report. Did you see ANY mention of it on the financial game shows? It shows that UNFUNDED Federal obligations stand at OVER $130 TRILLION.

So, we owe all of this “money.” The states, cities and individuals are also drowning in debt all while the economy, and our ability to service the debt, is collapsing. Many who are not paying attention and get their “news” from the propaganda stations and financial game shows will often say I am a pessimist because the (massively massaged to deceive) numbers do not jive with my take on our current situation.

Consider these facts and ask yourself- Is this a sign of strength or weakness?

· We are running a $2 TRILLION federal deficit and spending over $1 TRILLION in interest payments with most of the “money” being conjured up from nowhere. There appears to be NO will to even reduce spending let alone pay any debt down. 1

· Companies all across the country are laying off a massive number of employees. This is not limited to any one industry but across most industries. This is a problem for over-indebted individuals since 64% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and also does not help city, state and federal government budgets as lower wages mean lower income and sales taxes collected. 2

· Commercial Real Estate is collapsing in most major cities. This is also now spreading to the suburbs as many retailers are closing underperforming stores or are just closing up shop. Mom and pop businesses are getting hit the hardest with rising costs and less discretionary spending taking place.

· People are taking money out of their 401ks at a record rate. Last year, according to Vanguard, 6% of people tapped their 401ks. This is TRIPLE the average since stats were kept.

· Foreclosures were rising fast in 2025 but here in 2026 just in the first quarter 118,727 properties were hit with a foreclosure filing from January 1- March 31st. This is a 26% increase from last year’s filings. Home ownership has become an American nightmare for our younger generations. Those who looked at numbers that were high but manageable have now been crushed by the rising costs of everything else along with rising taxes, insurance, and basic necessities. Many are using CREDIT (more debt) just to get by. There is now over a TRILLION dollars in credit card debt outstanding and delinquencies are rising here also. Is it any wonder why consumer confidence is at an ALL-TIME LOW? 3

These are just a few illustrations of why things are likely to get FAR worse and sooner than most imagine. While many are counting on going deeper and deeper into debt to maintain a lifestyle, they have become accustomed to there are some stern warning signs that there could be a black swan event that could cause credit to seize up.

There are a couple of which I am aware. #1 Private credit. I have written about this before. Extremely risky in my opinion. Any asset that can report one hundred cents on the dollar and be worth ZERO in days to months is not something I want to count on. That 100% valuation was 100% ILLUSION.

While many are going gaga over AI, I have been skeptical for a while. This week, DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, reduced prices across the board. They also produced their AI system with a fraction of what US companies have spent and are intending to spend. TRILLIONS are supposedly needed. I still question whether the profits will even begin to service the massive debts being run up let alone create the massive windfall many are expecting. Possibly even more concerning was a report I heard this week on Miles Franklin Media with Michelle Makori where she revealed that the Fed had two secret emergency meetings. The first was to address the major banks (owners of the Federal Reserve) exposure to private credit. That is a sign!

Second, to alert the major banks that there is a security threat that they need to be aware of. It is with an AI service called Mythos. This AI system has a hacking mechanism that allows it to find and exploit vulnerabilities and link together with other working exploits. Obviously, it is not only those looking to build a new future but many who are looking to steal from it that are gaining traction.

To me, many promises to repay will be broken. We are already insolvent but incessant “printing” gives the illusion that all is well. We are just defaulting in a way that is far more manageable than reversing course and causing a major crash- likely instantly.

The writing is on the wall- we just do not know the exact timing.

Be Prepared! For just about anything!

Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not prove to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

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Sources : 1- US Treasury, 2 CNBC and all major outlets 3 Copilot Search