Is it just me or are you also noticing that what we are being told and what is actually happening are two grossly different things?

We hear from the financial game shows that “the economy is strong.” This, while ALL of the major economic data is pointing sharply downward. We hear that the “consumer is strong” because they keep spending. What is rarely, if ever, mentioned is that with rising prices we have no choice but to spend more to buy the same necessities. What also is rarely mentioned is that bankruptcies, foreclosures, credit card delinquencies and auto loan defaults are rising rapidly.

Zero hedge has also reported that people are using Buy now-pay later even for food and in some cases are even late in paying that.

What does this say about our solvency? We have a debt-based system that relies on collateral to function. As the collateral starts to collapse the banks can use creative accounting to hide the cracks. The central banks can conjure up credit to give the illusion of solvency where none exists without the money creation.

This has been going on since at least 2008. The problem? If collateral (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) collapse so does our current system. This is the reason that the central banks were so keen on propping up the stock and bond “markets.” Real Estate was the beneficiary of low interest rates and high bond prices.

So, what is the problem now? INFLATION. The rigging has gone so far that the average Joe or Jane cannot afford to live the American dream. It has become a nightmare. Trump can blame Biden; Biden can blame Trump but at the end of the day neither one is calling the shots. It is the Fed that runs the economy. They “print” the money and allow the spending by the government that would have dried up a decade ago without the “money” spigots.

A major reason it appears to me that we are at the edge of the cliff is that every effort is being made to prop up bond and stock “markets” as we speak. As “markets” fall a headline from President Trump, Scott Bessent, a Fed President, etc. always seems to show up to prop up the “market” Conjuring up cash is not even enough anymore.

Why is this important? Algorithms. They have no ability to discern facts or fiction. They trade on numbers being hit- which many know. They also trade on HEADLINES which many people may not know. Lately, many stories come out about deals and tariff relief only to be debunked the next day. Without looking behind the curtain it appears we are being lied to. Actually, the lies are directed to the algorithms that manipulate prices in another way.

While many are brainwashed by 24/7 propaganda to keep us unaware of how serious our current situation is there are some signs that the natives may be starting to wake up.

In a Bloomberg chart it showed that inflation expectations are rising. People are expecting 7% in the year ahead. They are likely far too conservative but that is likely because they are under the illusion that real inflation is at the 3% government number.

Consumer expectations are falling off of a cliff. This will happen when the economy is crashing, layoffs are rising, and there seems to be no coherent policy to change the direction anytime soon. In another Bloomberg chart it shows that in 2021 consumers were very confident with a sentiment reading of 110. As recently as 2024 sentiment was as high as 96 and today in 2025 sits at 54.4. This is likely because of rising prices, wages not keeping pace, and fear of future layoffs.

This is not just for those at the bottom of the wage scale. Those earning $125,000.00 or more have seen their sentiment drop from 127 in 2024 to 95 in 2025.

I firmly believe that by the end of this year we will see MAJOR changes. I picture a stone hitting the water and if we watch for a while the ripples extend FAR beyond the initial point of impact.

It started with government layoffs and now is rippling into the private sector. It started with tariffs and is now rippling into supply chains, increased costs for inputs, imports, and business costs leading to more private sector layoffs.

Many people who have not been impacted YET can still hold out hope. Those that have already been impacted are already feeling the pain.

There are MANY signs of trouble ahead like sharply lower action at our West Coast ports, cancelled shipments from China, 20,000 layoffs at UPS, slowing of movement of goods across the board. While this is concerning there is still substantial activity at this time to get ahead of the tariffs. Look for FAR more trouble if deals are not made in the near future.

Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it. The Smoot-Hawley tariff act put a nail in our economy during the great depression. World trade plummeted- similar to what we are seeing now. Goods became more scarce- as it appears we are heading towards right now. The main difference here is that it is more likely to be far worse now because it appears we will have an inflationary depression rather than a deflationary depression. We also do not have the same morals that we had in the 1920s and 30s when we were a far more moral nation and had FAR more respect for ourselves and others. In other words, if you have food, water, assets of any kind be prepared to defend them.

Hopefully, I will see some data that will change my thinking on this but in the meantime, it could not hurt to stock up on things you need like food, medicine, access to clean water, etc. I also believe that we could see a scenario where banks are shut down for a period of time so having cash on hand and items to barter with is also a good idea.

For those with excess cash I believe that gold and silver will not only allow you to survive what may be coming but will also allow you to buy assets that you could not imagine owning today. In addition, you will likely be part of the solution when we bottom out and start to rise again.

After every crash there is a recovery. This next crash has been put off for a decade or more and will likely be far more severe than many can imagine. For those unprepared- get prepared. For those that see the situation- be patient and wait for your opportunities. They should be abundant- at some point. While it is easy to imagine an outcome based upon current information it is nearly impossible to time it.

Be Prepared!

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