There was something that I wrote about last week that I think deserves far more attention than just a mention. I mentioned that at that time that even though the paper price of oil was way down the actual price to get a barrel of oil was $150.00. This suggests to me that, just like the manipulation of gold and silver, the paper price is being used to not only manage perception but to also attempt to cap the price. Further confirmation in my mind is the many instances being reported by CNBC and others about HUGE bets being made just hours before major announcements that have allowed those with inside information to make hundreds of millions of dollars.

It is pretty obvious that every time the stock “market” is under pressure an announcement is made to prop that up also. I believe this is being done to mask what is coming at us like a freight train. Mainly higher prices for everything and the longer this war goes on the more likely shortages of virtually everything becomes.

I find it amusing that the University of Michigan sentiment index (main street’s feeling about their economic future) is at decade’s lows while the stock “markets” are at all-time highs. When people are pessimistic about the future they do not spend. When spending slows profits drop. All of the manipulation will only make the necessary adjustment that is much more significant and painful.

The manipulation of “markets” is clear for all to see. Silver is a notable example where the difference between the paper price (used to cap the price) has been as much as $40.00 lower than the price to get an actual ounce in Asia. Currently, there is a $14.00 spread. In a normal market the spread should be nowhere near these numbers. As Andy Schectman has said in the past- the banks and governments use price as a diversion to keep the public out. This is so they can buy it all with less competition.

To pull off the crash in silver it took massive coordination with margin hikes, “glitches” at major exchanges so nobody could buy and interfere with the operation and those “in charge” looking the other way when a 10-year-old could see what was taking place if they were watching.

It appears that oil manipulation is far simpler. An announcement that the war is ending and oil crashes. An announcement that the war will continue and oil rises. Regardless of the means used, the outcome is similar. An illusion that the paper price is actually real when, in reality, if you want that physical asset the paper price is nothing but a fantasy.

Major damage has already been done to supply chains, energy infrastructure, and the ability of farmers to afford the fertilizer necessary to grow crops. Also, the materials needed to manufacture computer chips have been compromised. Many countries are already rationing oil and gas and urging their populations to drive less and work from home if possible.

While we here in the USA maybe the last to be affected we will certainly be affected. Even though we export a lot of oil and we are told we do not have to worry we actually IMPORT 2 million more barrels per day than we export.

I believe that this is particularly important because of all of the misdirection, many are failing to see that the risks we are facing are far larger than the fake numbers imply.

When the supply of real goods is insufficient to satisfy the demand the actual VALUE of those goods will be exposed. All of the manipulated numbers will be exposed for what they are- a means to deceive and create paper profits for the VERY FEW at the expense of most of the rest of us.

If we take a step back and look at the reality we are seeing with our own eyes, we should be able to see what fantasy is and what reality is.

With prices rising with no end in sight and incomes not rising enough to keep up, many are experiencing a declining lifestyle. Many are falling further and further behind. Is it more likely that the economy will boom and catch up with historically overvalued stocks or that stocks will fall to mirror the economic reality on the ground? The gravity of this situation is being masked by massaged numbers that bear NO resemblance to our reality.

Is it more likely that the fake paper prices of silver can be maintained while demand is through the roof and supply is dwindling after 5+ years of multi-hundred-million-ounce supply deficits persist or is it more likely that those manufacturing goods will pay far higher than the paper price to keep producing?

Is it more likely that gold will have a major correction when central banks are buying, trust in governments is falling and the geopolitical climate is crumbling while the costs of war, social programs, debt payments, and increasing inflation are spiraling out of control or is it more likely that gold shot higher, has been forming a base and could go FAR higher?

Is it more likely that oil will fall- as those “in charge” would like us to believe as not only supply is disrupted but also a lot of infrastructure has been destroyed, and the war has not ended yet or is it more likely to spike higher at least in the short term?

I believe the world is going to get a lesson it will not soon forget. Those that have put their hopes in “promises to repay” and paper assets will soon find out that you can “print” all you want. You can manipulate “markets” for a while, but when SUPPLY of real ASSETS becomes scarce- all the “printing” in the world will not produce ANYTHING. No water, no food, no oil or other natural resources, no gold, no silver, no building blocks for the future. The scam of “printing” will then be exposed.

One last thing. I think many (me included) assumed that those “in charge” had a handle on how things actually work. I am now referring to Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) who was a well-known successful trader. That is probably THE problem. Traders make short-term trades and look at everything as a financial transaction. I do not think most traders get outside of that box. In a stunning interview Mr. Bessent was asked about the tariff refunds, and he gave the STUNNING answer that even though China would collect over $100 BILLION he did not know if that would affect OUR economy.

It seems unbelievable to me that the man in charge of our Treasury would not even know that China did not pay a penny and will not receive any refunds. The refunds will go back to the importers who actually paid the tariffs. Of course, a lot of that cost was passed along to us, and we will be getting what we usually get- NOTHING!

I believe MAJOR changes are coming and far sooner than most are ready for.

Be Prepared!

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