I wrote a note earlier in the week discussing why we may see some weakness in the metals “markets” this week. My thesis was that with China closed for the lunar new year the metals would likely come under some pressure by those who manage the price lower.

As I write this on Friday morning gold has held firmly above $5000.00 per ounce and is rising. Silver has also resumed its upward trend.

I have mentioned the fact many times that central banks have also been buying massive amounts of gold for the past 5 years in particular. Obviously, the paper games used to mask the loss of purchasing power of fiat currencies are failing to have the same effect as they used to. Simply, there is too much demand for physical metals to keep the price tamped down.

It appears that every attempt to manipulate the price lower is met with people and entities buying the manipulated price to get the actual physical metal at a discount.

My opinion is that those short gold or silver are either sure they can manipulate the price as they have in the past or are just plain desperate to hide the fact that virtually all fiat currencies are falling fast in purchasing power and that MANY promises cannot be kept with the currency making those promises retaining anywhere near the value we expected.

There are MANY reasons to be concerned about our economy and currency right now like:

· $9 TRILLION in maturing US Treasury bonds in the year 2026 while foreign buyers are now sellers.

· Blue Owl Private Credit suspending redemptions- it appears indefinitely. This implies a liquidity problem- at best.

· Layoffs rising, companies closing, defaults in mortgages, autos, credit cards, etc. rising and already at or near all-time highs. All of these concerns have been met with MASSIVE “money printing” in the recent past and what is needed now makes 2008 -2024 look like a walk in the park. The problem here is that it is not just metals that will likely be far higher in price in the near future but just about everything we can think of that we need to live will also likely be FAR higher. My guess is that by the end of 2026 the prices we see today will look cheap.

I am sure many will think that with the economy tanking we would surely see deflation. I expect that we could see deflation in things that people may want because they will need to spend on things they NEED. The reason I have for believing inflation will be the problem is the “printing” that will likely take place to fill the chasm caused by falling tax receipts and more strain on our social safety nets. Of course, there is also a small chance that those “in charge” will act differently than we have seen in hundreds of instances globally and allow a collapse by raising rates and not “printing” up illusory “wealth.” Maybe they will stop reporting cascading DEBT as growth and allow the markets to do their job and find true VALUE and not a manipulated price- but do not hold your breath because that would cause an immediate collapse and the blame would be squarely where it belongs – on the central banks.

If that were to happen most “promises to repay” would be exposed for what they are- FANTASY. Producers would demand payment with hard assets. Gold would be the main asset that would be desired if history is correct.

Be Prepared!

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