Russia invades Ukraine. Will China be next going after Taiwan?
It appears to me that the Eastern bloc is becoming emboldened and are looking to make hay while the West is showing its weakness. The withdrawal from Afghanistan, I believe, gave Russia and China the green light to do just about whatever they like. If Russia takes Ukraine (They will) and China were to attack Taiwan it appears that the USA and our partners would have few, if any, answers.
Years and years of stifling innovation by awarding contracts mostly not on merit but by how “connected” you may be has led us down a path where Russia and China- even though they spend only a fraction of what we spend on “defense”- to have weapons that we don’t have and, at this time, may not have any answers for- like hypersonic missiles.
Our answer is sanctions. Please! Russia is sending more oil and natural gas to China to make up for the losses from Europe. They just signed a deal to send wheat to China. In the meantime, our citizens are the ones that pay with SOARING natural gas and oil prices. It’s WAY worse in Europe.
I have heard many say- yeah but look at the Russian Ruble. It’s getting killed. That is true BUT you have to recognize that their oil, gas and commodities are being paid for mainly with EUROS. So, while the folks in Russia may suffer- like all the rest of us peons-the Russian bottom line should be just fine.
By the way, Russia’s total international debt is around $50 BILLION. They don’t need to conduct their affairs the way we do. It is like a person who has $2 Million in assets and $50,000.00 in liabilities. Bottom Line is $1,950,000.00. He is ok but nothing compared to the guy with $100 Million. Too bad the guy with the $100 Million OWES $110 Million leaving his bottom line at Minus $10 Million. Which one is better off when asset prices fall but the debt REMAINS?
The $100 Million disappears, the hot-shot is left penniless, and has to start over from scratch.
We are entering a period where the rich guys need a distraction so they are not blamed for what is about to unfold. It can’t be that their “printing and buying” and manipulating of virtually all asset prices be blamed for the coming economic crisis. No, it has to be a war. They blamed COVID for problems that mysteriously showed up MONTHS before anyone heard that word uttered. The inflation, which may cause us the greatest harm is being blamed now on Russia. Isn’t EVERYTHING? I seem to have noticed prices skyrocketing LONG before Putin made any moves. The fact that the Fed conjured up nearly ½ of all dollars (or electronic blips) ever conjured up in around 18 months couldn’t possibly have anything to do with it could it?
The fact that the Fed conjured up and the government SPENT TRILLIONS (That they admit to) with no corresponding labor or assets to back it up – that couldn’t be it could it? The sad part is that this conjured up cash has just led us FURTHER into debt and we have NO productive assets to show for it. At least the Chinese build ghost cities. We conjure up cash and consume it. One day we will wake up to the fact that we have been living FAR beyond our means and the creditors will be showing up to collect.
Does anyone still buy the “strong economy” line anymore? Even CNN is being forced to report on what we have all been seeing for years but have been propagandized 24/7 by the mainstream media to have us believe that what we are seeing is not real.
The economy is in freefall and those expecting the Fed to ride to the rescue are likely to be greatly disappointed. Things are getting so bad that the people who are at the lower end of the earnings spectrum are having a hard time even renting the lifestyles that we were accustomed to. How do I know that? It was in the earnings report for Rent-A-Center. This company focuses on those whose credit scores will, most times, not allow financing. They said, “In the fourth quarter, the combined effect of significantly reduced government pandemic relief, decades-high rates of inflation, and supply chain disruptions impacted our target customer’s ability to access and afford durable goods, which negatively impacted our results.”
Pretty sad when a microwave oven or a new couch become luxuries that are out of touch for many – even to RENT.
The truly sad part is that, like many markets, the problems start in the periphery and gravitate to the center. In other words, the problem is exposed in the weakest economies first and then those same problems are felt later on by those that are higher on the food chain.
Many times in the past few years I have written that the Fed might just regret what they were hoping for- inflation. My opinion is that we haven’t seen anything yet and applications for government services are skyrocketing already.
Does anyone still believe “all is well”, “4% or less unemployment”, “inflation is transitory”, “the Fed has our back”? If YOU still do you better open your eyes quick. All is NOT well, the real unemployment rate -not massaged would be 25% + (great depression rates), the inflation rate without all he manipulation to make it look better would be near 15% and the Fed has shown for more than a decade the only backs they have are their own- and, of course, their OWNERS- the major banks.
The absolutely ridiculous actions in almost every financial market and financial asset should give everyone a clue that something is WAY off. It appears to me that the “market” is trying to do its one job- find true price discovery or value. The Fed, other central banks, major banks and their hedge fund buddies are doing all they can to make sure that doesn’t happen. Hence, the 1000-points in a day DOW swings, hundreds of points swings in the Nasdaq and extreme volatility in metals.
The REAL VALUE of paper assets is likely FAR lower than many currently believe. The real value of assets being artificially repressed are likely exponentially higher- like gold and silver which central banks and major banks have been purchasing in record amounts for years. This is at the same time they make it seem “RISKY” to the public so there is little competition for them.
It is pretty obvious that the TRUTH is the enemy of the central banks, major banks and the puppet governments that they have set up around the world. Yes- even here. Has ANYONE heard one of our “elected” officials ask anyone at the Fed just how they got this inflation thing so wrong? Any questions about the lower and middle classes being systematically destroyed by the inflation created by conjuring up cash and debt out of nowhere? Any question about how all of this could EVER be repaid without crashing the little value our dollar still has left?
What is the VALUE of a promise that cannot be kept? Think long and hard about that one!
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