When we have moves in “markets” like we had on last Friday many people get upset and wonder if we are seeing the beginning of something more ominous or if, as we have seen in the past 30 years or so, those “in charge” will step up and manage a reversal.

Of course, the very act of manipulating “markets” higher is a sign that it is a temporary fix for a structural problem. The interventions keep getting larger and larger as well as the price spikes and pullbacks until the system seizes up and we hit a decisive moment. The decisive moment, in my opinion, has been kicked down the road with hundreds of trillions of currency units globally (most of it since 2008) and we now stand at the cliff I have been writing about for years.

Personally, I have been leery of the stock and bond “markets” for years, so I am far more concerned about the hard assets that I myself and most of my clients and friends are holding.

While there was short-term damage done on Friday gold and silver bull markets remain intact. The major banks are still all calling for $6000.00 to $8500.00 gold in 2026.

It may be helpful to look at other bull runs in gold’s history to gain not only perspective but also to keep confidence going forward. It is always hard to maintain discipline when things are going against us.

If we go back to 1971 gold was $35.00 per ounce when Nixon took us off of the gold standard on August 15th of that year. By 1980 gold reached a high of $800.00 per ounce but the ride up was anything but smooth.

Between 1972-1974 gold rose from $45.00 per ounce to around $200.00 per ounce. Between 1975-1976 gold fell to $100.00 per ounce. Between 1977-1980 gold flew up to $800.00 per ounce.

In the next 20 years gold was in a bear market as Paul Volcker raised interest rates in 1980 to 18%. Rates gradually fell over time, leading to massive speculation in stocks and bonds. This led to capital leaving gold and into financial assets.

As rates were reduced throughout the early 2000s gold started to make a comeback but not without major price swings- mostly engineered by the major banks- to give the illusion of volatility and to suppress the price.

In 2000 gold was approximately $275.00 per ounce. By 2007 it had risen to about $900.00 per ounce. By 2009 it had fallen to $700.00 per ounce as the 2008 crisis unfolded. By 2011 gold had risen to $1900.00. At that time again the major banks stepped in along with others to collapse both gold and silver. It bottomed out in 2015 at 1050.00 per ounce and has been climbing ever since. Of course, not without substantial pullbacks along the way.

The major reasons why I have such high conviction in both gold and silver are many including:

· No chance of major interest rate hikes like we saw in the 1970s because it would bankrupt most nations. This does not mean it will not happen but if it does most people, companies, cities, states, and federal government budgets would be devastated and the “promises to repay” would be revealed to be as weak as the numbers say they are now but exponentially worse. This would lead those with purchasing power to hard assets of all kinds including gold and silver. Most people and entities would demand real goods for payment and not another “promise to repay.”

· Gold rises when confidence in governments, laws and currencies fall. We have it all taking place right now- not just here but globally. Gold is quickly replacing US dollars and treasuries as the desired global settlement currency.

· Silver is in its sixth year of supply deficits. The games being played at the COMEX and LBMA can only be continued if they can give the illusion of sufficient supply of the metals. China and manufacturers are actually going directly to miners to get supply rather than taking traditional channels. In addition, the COMEX, which was an exchange that was not set up to physically deliver metal but to manipulate the price via paper derivatives, is seeing massive claims for physical delivery that, at some point, will likely show that they have nowhere near the illusory supply that the numbers imply. Remember, most trading is done by algorithms and bots- they do not ask questions, they just see headlines and numbers and carry out the instructions programmed in. Those “in charge” know this and act accordingly.

At the end of the day gold will go higher with inflation because most prices rise as currencies fall in purchasing power. Silver would likely outperform in this scenario. If we were to have a deflationary outcome, gold still wins as people will not trust promises to repay and will demand a physical asset- most likely gold as we are currently seeing across the global south. Silver would likely underperform gold in this situation because of its industrial component but would also be ok because of the run to tangible assets and lack of supply. Also, as gold rises in price many will use silver as a replacement asset.

While pullbacks are sometimes scary and lead to questioning our beliefs, the reality is that VALUE has always been there and will continue to be there with no fear of another’s inability to repay.

Be Prepared!

Any opinions are those of Mike Savage and not necessarily of those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information in this report does not prove to be a complete description of securities, markets or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources deemed to be dependable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

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